News Analysis: Bin Laden dead, but could al-Qaida still strike?

News Analysis: Bin Laden dead, but could al-Qaida still strike?

by Matthew Rusling

WASHINGTON, May 3 (Xinhua) -- With the death of al-Qaida leaderOsama bin Laden announced on Sunday night, the question remainswhether the terror organization is finished or whether it is awounded tiger still poised to strike.

The world's top terrorist was killed during a nighttime raid at acompound outside of Islamabad by a group of U.S. Navy SEALS whosneaked in only minutes before, according to the White House.

Bin Laden, who topped America's most wanted list for leading theorganization that killed nearly 3,000 people during the Sept. 11attacks in New York and Washington in 2001, was buried at sea instrict accordance with Islamic law.

In a White House press briefing on Monday, John Brennan,assistant to the president for homeland security and counter-terrorism, said this was a blow to al-Qaida, albeit not a deadlyone.

"It may be a mortally wounded tiger that still has some life init, and it's dangerous and we need to keep up the pressure," hesaid. "We cannot relent, because there are individuals in thatorganization that are determined to try to carry out attacks andmurder innocent men, women and children."

Richard Barrett, coordinator of the United Nations al-Qaida/Taliban Monitoring Team, said the terrorist's demise is asignificant blow to al-Qaida, which has already become weaker overthe last two years due to the death of some senior members and itsincreasing irrelevance to movements for change in the Middle Eastand North Africa.

Al-Qaida is also becoming marginalized in Afghanistan, where theTaliban is increasingly likely to cut connections as a way to enterpolitical dialogue. And the death of bin Laden will make it easierfor the Afghan Taliban to do so, he said.

U.S. pressure has been a factor in al-Qaida's decline, but so toohas its loss of popular support, he said.

Bin Laden's death is also a psychological blow to the movement.Part of his mystique was his ability to evade the massive manhuntthat has sought to track him down since the end of 2001, he said.

Although many of his extremist supporters may claim that theywill follow him in death just as they followed him in life, Barrettsaid that is unlikely.

"Being dead, he will not be able to inspire the movement and keepthe flame alive. He will not be able to bring the movement up todate with current developments," he said. "And he will inevitably bereplaced by a leader who cannot live up to his image and willtherefore undermine his legacy, albeit unintentionally."

For now, Aiman al Zawahiri is likely to take over, at least untila more attractive leader is found, although Zawahiri has none of thebroad appeal of bin Laden, he said.

"He is a fighter more than a philosopher and his vision is farnarrower," he said. "His main concern is Egypt and it is unlikelythat al-Qaida will be able to make much progress there unless thereis a sharp crackdown on the revolutionary Tahrir square movement."

There are other possible leadership candidates, but no one withreal world stature or good name and face recognition, he said.

"Because bin Laden had been al-Qaida's leader from the beginning,there was not much experience of or thought about preparing asuccessor."

A U.S. VICTORY, BUT NO GAME CHANGER

The operation that led to bin Laden's death is among the mostsignificant successes for U.S. intelligence in the past decade,according to global intelligence company Stratfor.

But while it represents an emotional victory for Washington andone that could have consequences both for the U.S. role inAfghanistan and for relations with Pakistan, bin Laden's eliminationwill have very little impact on al-Qaida as a whole and the widerjihadist movement, the company said on its website.

Because of bin Laden's high profile, any communications hecarried out with other known al Qaeda operatives riskedinterception, and thus risked revealing his location. That factorforced him to be wary of communications for operational security andrequired him to give up an active role in command-and-control inorder to remain alive. He reportedly used a handful of highlytrusted personal couriers to maintain communication and had notelephone or Internet connection at his compound in Pakistan,Stratfor said.

Bin Laden was more of a chairman-of-the-board type figure, andnot really a CEO or a COO, said Scott Stewart, vice president oftactical intelligence at Stratfor, adding that much of the terrorgroup's organizational matters were handled by subordinates. "He wasmore of a figurehead," he said.

Still, al-Qaida is not the only terrorist organization around.

"It's very important for us to remember that the jihadistmovement is far wider than just al-Qaida the core organization,(which is) just a small vanguard," he warned.

REPRISAL ATTACKS?

Bin Laden's death has also sparked fears of a reprisal attackfrom al-Qaida or its affiliates in a bid to prove they are stillrelevant.

Brennan said there is no "specific and credible threat," rightnow.

"Like any incident like this, what we do is take the prudentsteps afterward to make sure that we have our vigilance up, that weare taking the appropriate measures so that our security posture isstrong, both overseas and here," Brennan said.

Meanwhile, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano saidMonday that the agency would not put out an alert at this time.

The incident also gives rise to the question of what bin Laden'sdeath means for the projection of U.S. global power.

While the operation was a U.S. tactical and intelligence victory,Stewart said it was limited in scope, and the United States is stilltied down in Afghanistan and Iraq, and lacks the capability torespond to other countries that it may consider threats, such asIran.

Malou Innocent, foreign policy analyst at the Cato Institute,said bin Laden's killing shows that the United States needs to relyon Pakistan for counter-terrorism cooperation.

Still, the past several years have seen that, despite all thetalks about partnership and cooperation, the two countries are farfrom being allies.