CONTRARIAN MANIFESTO

Boom or bust? We're always wrong

NEW YORK - My father taught me to go left.

Not politically. He was a right-wing Republican. At the movies.

"Most people choose the right entrance," he told me. "There are usually more seats on the left side of the theater." He dressed like a conformist, but Dad was a contrarian. "If you don't know what to do," he said, "do the exact opposite of what everyone else is doing. On average, conventional wisdom is always wrong. Run away from the crowd - and you'll come out ahead in the long run."

Never has the wisdom of his words been more apparent. Acting like Chicken Little proven right, government and business are making decisions …